Drone warfare and technological change in Myanmar
This briefing note shows that the widespread use of drones in Myanmar illustrates a technical and tactical shift for both the military (SAC) and resistance movements, reshaping how each side engages on the battlefield and responds to evolving capabilities. While resistance groups initially had a head start, they are now falling behind on the innovation curve and increasingly depend on low-cost adaptation to overcome resource constraints. The SAC, by contrast, has gained the upper hand through a newly acquired high-tech drone fleet drawing on Russian and Chinese technology. The decentralised and resource-limited nature of resistance drone warfare has spurred tactical innovation but also fragmented command structures, complicating efforts to scale coordinated operations. In addition, the report explores how the rise of drone warfare has opened up new roles for youth and women within resistance movements.
Shifting sands: Iran, the Axis of Resistance, and the war in Gaza
Shifting sands: Iran, the Axis of Resistance, and the war in Gaza – Q&A with Dr. Fatima Moussaoui
Funding the People's Defence Forces in Myanmar
This report examines how Myanmar’s anti-coup resistance movement is being financed, offering a comprehensive analysis of how the People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) sustain themselves economically. Drawing on dozens of interviews with resistance actors, civil society, and international stakeholders, it sheds light on the diverse fundraising methods, ranging from crowdfunding to natural resource taxation, and explores how these practices are reshaping local governance, political legitimacy, and the broader trajectory of Myanmar’s war. The report confronts complex dilemmas around accountability, aid diversion, and international support, offering critical practical and operational insights.
Unlikely Allies: Engaging armed groups for the protection of cultural heritage
This findings report explores why and how armed groups engage with cultural heritage, offering new tools and insights for cultural protection in conflict zones.
Strategies for engaging armed groups in cultural heritage protection
This briefing presents strategies for engaging armed groups on cultural heritage protection, focusing on risk management, community engagement, and practical tools for culturally sensitive programming in conflict zones.
Motivations of armed groups to protect cultural heritage
This briefing note explores why armed groups protect or destroy cultural heritage, highlighting ideological, political, and contextual factors that shape their behaviour. It offers insights to inform targeted engagement strategies in conflict zones.
Capacity building for engagement with non-state armed groups and de facto authorities
This briefing outlines barriers and solutions to building capacity for engaging armed groups and de facto authorities in protecting cultural heritage. It calls for better tools, partnerships, and recognition of heritage protection as a core humanitarian concern.
Fostering peace through dialogue on culture
This briefing explores how cultural heritage can open dialogue with armed groups and de facto authorities in conflict zones, drawing on case studies from Afghanistan, Mali, Myanmar, Sudan, and Syria. It highlights cultural heritage as a potential tool for peacebuilding and recommends strategies to bridge cultural and political engagement.
A Scalable Typology of People’s Defence Forces in Myanmar
Since Myanmar’s 2021 coup, armed resistance has expanded rapidly, with over 600 People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) emerging across the country. These groups vary widely in structure, capacity, and alliances—some closely integrated with Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs), others aligned with the National Unity Government (NUG), and some operating autonomously.
This report introduces a framework to categorise PDFs based on their level of integration and battlefield effectiveness, shedding light on their evolving role in Myanmar’s conflict. It examines shifting alliances, the impact of drone warfare, and the broader trajectory of resistance efforts, offering key insights into the country’s increasingly complex armed opposition.
Shadow wars: the Taliban’s campaign against the Islamic State Khorasan Province
This paper examines the evolution of the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) from 2021 through 2024, tracing its transformation from a severely weakened entity to an adaptive, decentralised organisation capable of posing a persistent threat in Afghanistan.
Drawing on over 100 qualitative interviews with ex-ISKP members, supporters and sympathisers, it provides an insider perspective into ISKP’s strategies, challenges and resilience in the face of sustained Taliban counteroperations.
Despite significant losses – including the elimination of key leaders, mass surrenders and the disruption of critical operations – ISKP has maintained visibility and relevance. At the same time, Taliban counterterrorism strategies have evolved. The Taliban’s campaign has suppressed ISKP’s territorial and operational ambitions but has not eradicated its ideological appeal.